We all strive for simplicity – most of us anyway. And more and more you read and hear about people who have used the economic climate of the past year plus to “simplify” – as in take out the extraneous, and what in retrospect feels useless, and instead invest in those things that really add value and such to their life. Black and White….

So far so good. That is an insight – or is it?

The legendary Chairman of Sony in Japan, Akio Morita – who visualized the success of the Walkman when everyone else (including GE) used their “consumer insight” to kill the idea – once said: “The ideal consumer electronics device has only one button” – simplicity defined – Black and White.

Or is it?

Seems to me the truth is that the “one button” which presents to us as elegantly simple has behind it a most complex and intricate technology, which on its own, left to its technical developers, no doubt would never have presented itself as “one button” – think DOS to Windows 7 – My PC…

So the thought is that Black and White is never really Black and White, nor is it merely grey. Rather, more often than not, scratch the surface just a little and a riot of colors presents itself – and your insight, of simplicity, somehow gets lost in the cacophony.

The Internet is a great and growing example. On the one hand we marvel that we can access data and information anywhere at any time – stand on a street corner in Paris and find the time of the next showing of Avatar in Hong Kong. We have made the world smaller and ever smaller – erased time and distance and created the truly global view of the world.

The one-button thinking has led some to think that one size now fits all – since I can literally see just about everything, just about everywhere (those countries that still limit full, uncensored access aside), ergo I can now market and communicate more efficiently and effectively (for whom…?) with one campaign, one message, one program. WOW!!! Think of the money we save…

But – the smaller we have made the world, the more we have enabled the creation of silos, small communities, groups of like-minded people, and many with fierce local pride and its dark flip-side prejudice.

The Internet, at its best, is not a mass medium like TV that in fact can broadcast what it wants and in its former sheer weight and volume wear down the opposition, if you will.

On the one hand, it is more mass – in that its channels and sources are seemingly infinite. Yet the ability that I have to pick and choose, to search and share, to block and enable makes the experience as local and intimate as it gets. It’s mine – all mine. And your view of simplicity neglects the complex confluence of time, place, religion, economics, nationality, need, age – whatever that converge in a simple click – and therein lies the rub.

As I write this on a plane back from a meeting in Dubai (amazing!), I am also reminded of the Black and White we experience as people. Those who travel the “region” – and by region I mean the whole Middle East – know that what you experience from the 24/7 onslaught of news and opinion is rarely close to the truth.

The one-button view is of war and hatred and repression – and, yes, there is a lot of that…sadly. But scratch the surface and the story changes – yet we continue to swirl around the simple pictures, of our own making, continuously pressing that same button – no matter who or where we are – and it is ironically the same button.

Sadly, in our pursuit of simplicity and without the understanding of the complex thinking that goes behind that one button or that one click, we will never truly maximize the potential we have…

All of which leads me to this…listen:

“Perception is strong and sight weak. In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.” – Miyamoto Musashi

And there you have it.

Akio Morita was a true visionary. He looked out and brought the future in close, very close (Zune and iPod owe him big), but he also forced those who had their heads down squinting at their screens to look up and see the world as it could be.

So I might be able to get that movie time in Hong Kong while I am in Paris – but never forget that a minute later I’m eating a croissant at my new favorite local café (that I found through one of my Facebook friends and navigated to using my handset) engaged in heated discussion – as can only be had at a good French café – wondering why I was just barraged with messages about China and Chinese food in Paris….

You see you don’t know why I looked that up – do you?

What’s your view?

A terrible and tragic earthquake hits Chile and in Hawaii and Japan people brace for a tsunami aftermath. Elsewhere, Haitians continue to suffer and the differences between Haiti and a country like Chile where building codes are enforced and municipal emergency services work is evident in the relative (yet no less sad – said as I learned that members of my extended family in Chile are fine) differences in death and destruction.

In other world news more suicide bombers struck, ever more saber rattling made empty noise around the globe, corrupt politicians were caught out yet stayed in office, the Winter Olympics wound down and the tsunami was, thankfully, baby- sized.

All the while people around the world were searching – searching for things important to them, critical to their lives, significant and vital to their day – and of the top 20 searches since Friday not even half were about Chile and Haiti is already forgotten. We have moved on….

What was important? The disappearance of a formerly famous teen actor and a movie he made a number of years ago.

The Romans designed and built great roads (better than we make today) so that important news in their far-flung empire would travel quickly.  Printed matter was the next big leap, followed by the telegraph, radio, TV and today’s Internet.

Each brought events closer, each made them more real and immersive than the last – but maybe…just maybe we have lost the ability to be involved. To really care. To isolate feelings amidst the overload of sensory input.

One possible proof point: despite all of the hype – the twitter networks, the use of technology to micro donate and such – the amounts of donations raised for Haiti have not exceeded previous efforts made with less technology and immediacy of giving options.

What does it all mean? You tell me….

But listen:

“Concern for man himself and his fate must always form the chief interest of all technical endeavor.  Never forget this in the midst of your diagrams and equations.”

Albert Einstein

And there you have it. Albert would have been appalled that killer whales, bad movies and fallen stars would be more sought after in the age of instant information than how to help people in need.

What does it all mean indeed – and what can we do about it ourselves, in our networks and in the greater world?

And, to be completely insensitive for argument’s sake – if people’s attention wavers on Chile and Haiti – what do we think we can do with a box of cereal…?

What’s your view?

I don’t mean physically – although at my age….

I mean in life, in work – whatever….

You know the scenario – you plan, you push, you strategize, you create and you build – you see it all in your mind’s eye….  You start the journey.

And then – you get there and it’s just not what you thought – you feel like you are in another universe.

You are not where you planned to be – like Dorothy in The Wizard of Oz – you open the door and it’s all different….

What do you do?

What usually happens?

Do the fingers start pointing? Is it hard to find anyone who is accountable? Do you end up holding the bag?

Are clients yelling or are your colleagues backing away, throwing their hands up, or are your significant others getting riled up…?

What do you do?

You can run…you can change universes.  You can pretend that you have nothing to do with the situation.  You can close your eyes and wish yourself away (oh, those ruby slippers…).

Or you can make it your own time and place.  Listen:

“Remember, no matter where you go, there you are.” Earl Mac Rauch

I love the simplicity….  And there you have it.

Accountability is about time and place – it’s our real estate to own…or not….

And owning real estate gives you a stake in the ground and a place to return to and room to defend….

What do you think?

“Sure, winning isn’t everything. It’s the only thing.” – Henry Sanders

Being an Olympic junkie – having worked the games for clients when I was at Burson-Marsteller;

And being that we are in Olympic mode with the start of the 2010 Winter Games in Vancouver;

And being that I stay up late to watch even the curling;

And being that MSFT Silverlight powers the videos for the NBC Olympic Web site;

And, finally, given that my Ramble last week dealt with winning and losing;

I felt compelled, nay, almost competitive, to ramble on winning, but from a slightly different perspective…

Despite the hold-hands kumbaya, we-are-one veneer of the Olympics – a little cynical, but I still watch  – it certainly looks like winning for many is in fact everything.  Witness the tragic death of the Georgian luger Nodar Kumaritashvili during a training run and the ensuing controversy about how much competition is enough.

So is that all there is? Is it only about the Gold? What if I win the Silver? The Bronze? What about the fact that I just get to compete? I am in the company of the best in the world – isn’t that worth something and can’t I do something positive with that for the rest of my life?

As I pondered this, I suddenly remembered an article I had read – years before – on Gold, Silver, and Bronze winners of Olympic medals and their attitudes toward their standings. Through the technological magic of the digital age, I found it with one Bing and one click.

The study was simple. It looked at winners across the three categories (Gold, Silver, and Bronze) and looked at how the second- and third-place winners reacted to their achievements – were they winners or losers?

“In 1995, a study was carried out by social psychologists Victoria Medvec, Scott Madey and Thomas Gilovich on the effects of counterfactual thinking on the Olympics. The study showed that athletes who won the bronze medal were significantly happier with their winning than those athletes who won the silver medal. The silver medalists were more frustrated because they had missed the gold medal, while the bronze medalists were simply happy to have received any honors at all (instead of no medal for fourth place) [1]. This is more pronounced in knockout competitions, such as the FIFA World Cup, where the bronze medals are achieved by winning a playoff, whereas silver medals are awarded after a defeat in the final.”

Bottom line? As the study reported:

“Being one of the best in the world can mean little if it is coded not as a triumph over many,

but as a loss to one. Being second best may not be as gratifying as perhaps it should.”

Follow it all here.

And there you have it – we win, we lose. We get into a final, we don’t – we get invited to a party, but not the VIP reception – we debrief and report that we came in second…as the other nonwinners are debriefing and hearing the same.

What does it all mean?

Frankly – who knows…not even Job …or the movie A Serious Man have a clue…

But this much I know – I think…

When a win is only about winning or when a lose is only about losing, the future state is bleak.

To that end – quoting from yet another sports source – in fact a world record holder to this day:

“If you can react the same way to winning and losing, that is a big accomplishment. That quality is important because it stays with you the rest of your life.” – Chris Evert

And there you have it, or in the words of Kipling:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: “Hold on”

My take is to know that I played the ”game” as well and as focused and as dedicated as possible. And the game is life – work, home, friends, and colleagues – it makes no difference – in the end – we will win and we will lose and the balance will be determined by ourselves – but only if we are balanced – I think that is what it’s all about…

What do you think?

How can the favorite lose?

By that I mean – a person, or group, or team that was a sure bet – the best bet in fact:  the odds were in their favor – even the real money odds in Las Vegas – say.

And yet they don’t pull through.

What prompted this thought was the (to be 100% politically correct) United States Football Annual Championship Game – the Super Bowl – a night of sports, chili, beer, commercials and an occasional great game.

This year the match up was between a team that had won before and had the undisputed best quarterback in the National Football League – the Indianapolis Colts – and a team that was newer to the scene, had never even been in the finals and came from a city that had seen devastation – the New Orleans Saints.

The odds were clear – some thought the game would be a waste – and yet the underdog won.

The easy message and great motivational thought is simple and clear – maybe too much so.  They worked hard – harder than the others, were focused, kept driving, didn’t give up – you know all the clichés.

But this year that just didn’t do it for me. And I started to reflect on what defines “best,” and can one always be best, and if not, what is the solution?

And then I stumbled across this thought from a most interesting source (follow it):

“Only the mediocre are always at their best”. Jean Giraudoux

And there you have it.

Best is a moving target. It is not a static metric. As a definer, it is elusive – here today and gone tomorrow – unless you constantly refresh its source and re-evaluate the playing field on a regular basis.

Bottom line – the danger of thinking you are always best is that very quickly you narrow the completive set and, as they say, a minister with a congregation of one has a very small congregation indeed.

The challenge is clear – today you are the best quarterback in the world – tomorrow you might lose – and then you have to up the game – seriously.

So one can claim best – and be the best of some set, no doubt – or strive always to be better – as opposed to best.

What do you think?

Have you ever been dynamically served?

Have you ever been experientially immersed?

Yes, folks, people do speak like that – and I imagine that the 2020 version of Mad Men – Digital Guys – will make fun of the latest iterations of “ad speak.”

However, I will indulge my cynicism on our lingo and jargon another time.

Today I will direct my cynicism at the notion that we can affect mass movement by simply allowing computer rules to direct our conversations.

Now before you jump down my throat – trust me, I get it – dynamic optimization and immersive experiences are what make our world so exciting.

But hear me out:  What limits us – in what might be a world without limits – is our belief that going digital somehow erases the human element in marketing.

Fact – if I were to add up all of the percent increases in sales, sign-ups, click- throughs, opt-ins, cross-sells, up-sells, whatever – that I see presented in a week by the latest and greatest engines, algorithms and such – there would nothing left to sell as we have all been maximized to buy it all by our computers.

What is missing is the human element. We are a messy race – unpredictable, capricious, subject to violent mood swings, sudden changes of mind, spontaneous and illogical behavior (ah, SPOCK!!).  In short – there is a limit to what you can predict about my future behavior because you are crunching a bunch of numbers….

Listen:

People are people, messy and mutable, combining differently with one another from day to day – even hour to hour.

Elizabeth Moon

So there you have it –

Next time someone tries to sell you digital optimization – ask them what they know about people…about you…it changes second by second….

It’s called insight – by the way.

What do you think?

We plan, we work hard, we are sure that we have done it all right – and then WHAM!!! – it all falls apart, like we had no idea of what we were doing or where we were going.

What just happened? Ever get that feeling…?

Sometimes we blame Murphy – as in Murphy’s Law.

Sometimes we blame Karma.

Or Kismet.

Or we just say “C’est la vie,” or as is expressed in American slang.

But sometimes all of the above is a mere cop-out, an excuse, a lack of accountability – you get the picture.

I was reading a review of a book called The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right, by Atul Gawande.

A professor of surgery at Harvard Medical School – Gawande believes that simple checklists can help us better navigate the growing complexity of our ever more complicated world.

Truth is – he focuses more on medicine, and the results are staggering – but the checklist as he defines it was actually pioneered by the U.S. Air Force and his description of the way the checklist was followed (two, in fact, at the same time!!) by Captain Chesley Sullenberger as he landed his stricken jetliner in the Hudson River is amazing, instructive and gets the thinking going….

Truth is – I am a big believer in “Blink” moments – but as intuitive as I think we need to be, there is something to be said for making sure that we are also competent….

Gawande writes (talking about medicine – but it applies) that the problem is “making sure we apply the knowledge we have consistently and correctly.”

In The New York Times Book Review – Sandeep Jauhar, the reviewer, writes, “Failure, he argues, results not so much from ignorance (not knowing enough about what works) as from ineptitude (not properly applying what we know works).”

So here is the thing…

The most used list I have seen, over the past few years, is the one I see in many conference rooms to guide one through the intricacies of turning on the AV system – and maybe – just maybe – therein lies a piece of the problem.

What I’d like to suggest is that we combine the “Blink” moment with the “Checklist” – link our rational “go down the checklist” side with our intuitive, passionate “I feel it” side.

In fact I’d argue strongly that if you have heard Captain Sullenberger or read his interviews – that is just what he did – went by the checklist but added his deep intuition and passion.

All of which leads me to the following:

A final anecdote:

In the Army there was a saying – If someone was smart and passionate they made him a field officer because they are the ones who lead the troops into combat and need the combination of the two. If someone was smart and lazy they made him an HQ officer because the smarts were valued and it was OK to be 9 to 5. On the other hand, if you were stupid and lazy they made you a parade sergeant because you could strut around all day. BUT – if you were stupid and industrious they took you out to be shot – because you were the one who was going to get everyone else killed.

And there you have it – passionate virtuosity – the Blink and the Checklist….

What do you think?

Before I get to the answer…

Last week I reported from CES – the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. I talked about the Candy Store feeling and all the wild stuff that was on its way.

This week I’m reporting from Detroit, where I attended the Detroit Auto Show, which for over a century has defined Detroit’s power in the industry and for the past 20 years or so has helped to define the global market as well:

http://www.naias.com/the-2010-show/overview.aspx

As a kid with a love for metal, I eagerly awaited the pictures from the show of the concept cars and would hang the really “cool” ones on the wall of my room, dreaming of the day they would be real and I would own one – my first car was a Dodge Charger RT with a 440 Magnum – don’t ask…my parents still cringe – metallic blue with a black stripe around the tail….

Last year the show was a shadow – understandable given the economy and the state of the global, in particular U.S., car industry.

This year there was definitely a more optimistic tone, but still, some companies like GM did nothing more than display “cars on carpet” – no demonstrations, no info kiosks, no young experts to answer your questions and further excite your curiosity.

Having said that, there was still a lot to see, and if you follow the links I provide, you will get a sense of what was on display:

http://www.insideline.com/auto-shows/detroit/?mktcat=IL-shows&kw=detroit+auto+show&mktid=ga11335701

But here is the thing – I don’t know about you, but although I follow reviews carefully and love to listen to what the reports – of any kind – say, I also like to follow the crowd – the social networking experience at its best and most powerful. It’s like reading a bad movie review and then discovering that for 4 weeks it’s the number one attended film in the world – the so-called pros went one way, but the people – those who buy and get the point – went another.

Here is the point – and I will get to my questions in a minute – I didn’t forget….

Small cars, yes; electric cars, yes, all true – there was interest – new models even from some of the more challenged participants – also, yes – a few cool concept cars – no doubt.

But the crowds were at Ford.

Full disclosure – they are a client…but the crowds were there.

Going back a week to CES Ford was also present. Alan Mulally, CEO of Ford, gave one of the keynote addresses. A car guy at CES? A car guy at the home of cool electronic gadgets and converged devices?

Now to my questions…

Smart phones have everything to do with cars and that is because (answer to my second question) convergence is really about life and not about screens or systems or content alone.

For years we’ve seen the “concept” kitchens – who really needs a TV in their fridge? Come on!!!

But cars are different. Very much so.

Music is already an integral part of the driving/riding experience; GPS is too, and phones are as well – not to mention computers, DVDs, BlackBerries and whatever…but not all integral to the car…and too often being a dangerous and sometimes fatal distraction.

When Ford presented at CES – it was all about convergence. How to converge the experience of driving safely with the need we have to be in constant touch, always on communication, GPS/Music/Talk/Text, whatever, all converged into one system that allows for safe driving and full connection – concept? Stuff of the future? Check it out:

http://www.autoblog.com/2010/01/07/myford-touch-and-sync-app-ecosystem-hands-on-and-video/

The audience got it – both in Las Vegas and in Detroit – and they get that it’s here now.

I must also report that another aspect of this (hold on to this one) was the Ford cars that park themselves – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xW-MhoLImqg – I tried it – wild!!!

So what’s my big take?

What interested folks at the show was the wild, futuristic, cool stuff that they can buy today. There were fewer concept cars than ever and, frankly, none of them excited even me – an unabashed photo hanger of the yet to be – but who got really excited about what I can take home today that is really leading edge.

All of which led me to this week’s quote, which I found to be almost providential in its message:

“You can’t build a reputation on what you are going to do.”

Henry Ford

And there you have it – a thought for all of us that has always been true – but today maybe more than ever.

In a world where the future is often here and incremental whatevers are just not worth the wait – reputation is about what we do and deliver. Today…

Think on that – next time you plan or promise or plot – we have so much that we can have yet to do with what we have, why waste the opportunity on what we don’t? Business or personal…

What do you think?

PS – check this out…. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/darpa/

Did have to provide one big futuristic thought – imagine if driving was the real distraction and not texting…imagine that the car experience was for your personal time and that the car drove itself…coming soon….

How about the Toy Store? Same experience – right?  Talk about wide eyes…you really, really wanted that Transformer, Barbie or Mad Scientist set – but, well, maybe, could I please have one more? An ironic twist on old Oliver…to say the least. And you threw a tantrum…you can fill in the rest.

Me? I’m on my third round and perspective on this one – started with my own tantrums, managed my kids, and now give my grandsons whatever…

Now to the point…

CES (the annual consumer electronics show in Las Vegas) is the Candy Store; it’s the Toy Shop equivalent for adults. In fact, it’s the experience on steroids. It’s written about; broadcast on; blogged; Tweeted; filmed; and legions of digital camera-toting fans, aficionados and candy/toy lovers shamelessly snap away so that they can plan a future visit to their own toy/candy store.

FULL DISCLOSURE. I was there and did the same.

What a place. You don’t know which way to turn, where to look first or even how to begin.

You begin by telling yourself it’s all about the technology – you are there to learn…RIGHT. Within a few moments all you want to do is see the newest 3D exhibits, marvel at the colors and depth of the latest TVs, listen to the greatest sounds you have ever heard, and of course marvel at the ultra-thin newest and wildest screens that are so thin they could be wallpaper.

True – you also drool at the convergence of more traditional broadcast and Internet, and shake your head in awe as you realize that while your favorite movie is playing in full THX, surround-sound, 3D, realistic organic you are in it mode – you can also Skype, e-mail, add to your recipes and blog…RIGHT! Quickly you return to the picture and the fact that with this new technology you can access more shows, more movies and more experiences – as for the Skype…you tell me…not when I’m watching!

So how do you make sense of it all?

To begin, you might Bing and see what you can find – to help you along I provide the following link – one of thousands:

http://www.bing.com/search?q=ces%202010%20products&mkt=en-us&FORM=TBRC&DI=6244&CE=14.0&CM=SearchWeb

Or – if you were in Las Vegas – and lucky enough to be a client, friend or colleague, you could join and take – what is known as “Irwin’s Tour” – possibly the most sought-after ticket at CES after Kid Rock.

Irwin, by the way, is Irwin Gotlieb, CEO of Group M and, if you follow this link, much, much more:

http://cityfile.com/profiles/irwin-gotlieb

He is an unabashed techno-geek who understands and revels in the technology (I have seen him hold his own with the developers of Star Wars type stuff); who uses technology at its razor-thin edge but, more importantly, can explain it in English so that we can all understand and maybe even more importantly – in fact, yes, more importantly – knows and understands how (or how not) it will be used today, next year and in a decade. So if you are in the business, you need to hear his view.

Irwin spends a day reconnoitering the miles of exhibits and carefully plans a journey that leads to enlightenment and frankly the ultimate cool experience and takeaway.

So, together with my boss, Daniel Morel (who like me loves tech toys – although I was trumped by the Bluetooth connection to Pandora on his Harley through his helmet speakers), we joined the Irwin Tour (as always) and spent the next two hours immersed in the best the show has to offer.

Check out these little Flips to get a sense of Irwin and what we saw:

Irwin’s Private CES Intro 2010

Screens

Thin

But here is the thing – with all the technology, and the whiz bang and all the jargon, terms, specialized lingo and potential gobbledygook – what makes Irwin’s tour amazing is the sheer joy and wonder he instills in all of his explanations and his choice of what to see.

He is like the kid in the Candy Store, and he made us all feel the same – and when you emerge from CES with a wide-eyed stare and practical information, you have made the experience worthwhile.

All of which led me to a favorite source for the sheer joy of wisdom, knowledge and magic…

Listen:

“…Curiosity has its own reason for existing… Never lose a holy curiosity.” Albert Einstein

So you can go to CES – or anywhere – and be jaded – or you can be the Kid in the Candy Store. Thank you, Irwin!!!!!!!

As I left with my candy whistle – Daniel and I were planning how to make interactive wallpaper out of the crazy thin new screens…now we only need a real business model and some more candy. Any ideas?

What did you like best? What would you really like to have?

No doubt one of the most asked questions around the world as people gathered to ring out the old and welcome in the ‘10s.

And, no doubt, depending on where we live, what’s important to us, what we’re passionate about, what riles us, excites us, arouses our ire, inspires our ardor, causes us sorrow, brings us joy or just simply catches our imagination – our answers are all different, as personal and diverse as only what comes from within can possibly be….

It was hard to escape the writings and ruminations of the pundits who seemed obsessed by returning to that different world we lived in at the start of this century, when our biggest fear was Y2K – hard to imagine in retrospect the headlines of doom and destruction around that particular end of the world scenario – from the most prestigious publications and the most thoughtful writers – worth a BING – if only for the laugh and a reminder of how little the analysts get right….

So here we are – ten years later – Twitter and all – and it’s often hard to tell in all the change – what has really changed – or rather what has changed that really makes a difference…what do you think?

And, at the end of a year of turmoil and no small amount of global gloom – my cynical nature looks at a guy trying to murder his fellow passengers by blowing up his underwear as an ironic summation of a crazy and unsettled time.

And there you have it – the old is out and the new is in.

So where does that leave us – beyond longer lines at airports and wondering about seat mates who spend too much time in the lav?

Seems to me it’s all about what you consider “new” to mean and how we handle the “newness” of it all.

Listen:

Let us watch well our beginnings, and results will manage themselves. ~Alexander Clark

And there you have it – with the old out and the new in – it’s all about getting started – leaving the old behind, embracing the new and launching fresh, innovative and original thinking, actions and activities.

It’s all about creation – “In the Beginning….” Get it right at the start and all of our energy will be channeled into keeping it fresh and new as opposed to constantly fixing and repairing and coming from behind….

In fact I believe that is what this means – nothing manages itself – not really – but if we are cognizant that we can begin again – and do it – and keep doing it – well, my sense is that we will always be looking at new beginning – and what a place that is to be….

So here is to new beginnings – 365 days of them….

Your views?