A beautiful, inspiring and clever metaphor for the dialectic nature of the world we live in. Dialectic = The contradiction between two conflicting forces viewed as the determining factor in their continuing interaction. If the world is flat and rapidly globalizing, how come nationalism is alive and well and century-old analog tribes and instant digital ones (our social graphs) shape our identity? Without the cheap apples from China nobody would blog about the joys of eating local food…

lets continue the thinking -- high end glossy magazines still fill the racks at newstands; bicycles have made a comeback; organic..not hydroponic..veggies are the rage...radio -- delivered over the web or via satellite is still radio and Batman rules the movie screens...what else??

Well, the prestige brands versus commoditised timepieces. Post-Stoppard, the watch has been usurped by the mobile phone in a lot of cases, but the attraction of prestige still holds. Maybe the attraction of nostalgia as well. Blinking is in the now, but nostalgia is as long as anyone's memory. Trend watching is fascinating even in boring categories. Ever noticed the steady decline in supermarket aisles given to breakfast cereal? Must be 50% less in a decade. But where is the growth? More "health and beauty", more "gourmet", more product extensions, more soft drinks... And more shopping trips with smaller baskets. Ie, simpler missions. Online is like the simplest missions of all. One at a time, get the best price for the desired big purchase. In this country, online grocery shopping isn't strong. Tom. PS: I have a Seiko Kinetic - which has an analogue face, a quartz movement, but a recharging mechanism that works like an old fashioned "automatic" watch. I feel a time schism on my wrist.

I love my low technical "hand driven" watch. But watching out, I can see that glossy high-end brand watches everywhere. Of course, they don´t take that charisma and that spirit. Let´s say, it´s a different one. Let´s continue: Yesterday I saw the first electric motorbike, driven by "muscle power". Looking like a high-tech endure-machine, but it´s just a bike. your own power, goin´up to 90km/h. perfect to drive the highways. but it´s just a bike, driven by muscle power. no gas needed, no co2-emissions, just a bike, driven by muscle power. cool, retro, hightech, low-high-tech. http://www.n24.de/news/newsitem_972149.html - have fun by watching that

Here's something to replace the Swiss watch as the status symbol of the future: the $999 iPhone App... http://valleywag.com/5033740/behold-the-99999-do+nothing-iphone-app-buy-it-because-you-can

hmmm I suspect many people lie on their pillows at night, wondering if they would have survived a tussle with a one of lifes lightening bolts!!! ...I suspect in the morning they probably go to the internet and google people who actually played with the bolts. Does this choice make us more learned and considered, or just more cautious... how many "blink" moments have been put off by the a trip to Google to "look it up" paralysis by analysis ...or alternatively how many bolt grasps have been inspired by the same thing!

Its all about the Eureka moment -- when it all comes together -- intuition and insight trump all and Archemdies comes running down the street, dripping from his bath, towel in hand...

Risk analysis was devised to handle uncertain situations and especially limited information. This approach rolls up the idea of probability and utility (costs and benefits) of consequence, for all anticipated outcomes. The expected utility may come in a tree of sequences. Game theory looks similar. So far, so good, but two problems are: unanticipated outcomes, and in order to estimate probabilities you need more data than to estimate just a likely value. So "prudence" (conservative assumptions) are called usually made. Hedging (insurance against adversity) is another risk management tool. The US financial/debt markets probably weren't at school when these lessons were taught. Ultimately something adverse will come along. The Eureka moment for those would have been an anticipation that long lines of dominos do indeed fall, especially in earthquake zones. [However successful Gordon Gekko has been to date]. The best Eurekas involve discovery (often intuitively with validation) of a consistent law. The consistent law makes it easier and safer to come up with good probabilities of outcomes (and THEN act rationally). Intuition has a big role in situations where words like "would, should, could, might" are used. Not the only approach, but don't leave at home without it... Tom.

EUREKA!

Reminds me of what my father told me about how he was taught to swim. An old guy who did this kind of thing tied a rope around his waist and threw him in the river. Eureka! He learnt to swim. Dozens of other boys learnt the same way. Sometimes the realisation about what you have to do requires a bit of a push. Maybe not the approved method, but going into the deep end (with a life line) can clear the mind. Intuition's like that, when there's no recipes or water wings. The lifeline isn't a comfort device, but something the ensure you try again. But be careful what you inadvertently confess in front of clients! Tom.

That quote is from a politician - people often accused of being economical with the truth. So I think the statement is often taken out of context - really, it is an inditement of the use of statistics by politicians in a time (19th Century England) long before research codes, bodies and standard methodologies. Sure, interrogate and understand the research methodology before you trust any statistics, and take them in the context of personal experience too. But if you don't try to put rigorous data insight a the core of your decision making process you'll get beaten by your competitor who does. 99% of the time anyway ;)

A message I like to use with my clients about simulators and modelling: Think of the computer (or simulator, or OLAP tables and dashboards) as another voice in the room. It can answer questions that may be hard to answer in any other way. But as a voice in the room, you have to decide whether you want to believe it. There might be something else going on... Also, statistics can come out wrong if they are abused, or wrong because they are analyses of the past (where data comes from), while consumer behaviour is in the future. Good experimental design lets you reach into the future (but not very far). Also, statistics and modelling often are right, and their impact has been in lower costs, more effective reach, channel innovation, etc. Why isn't data-driven commerce perfect then? Partly because everyone is using it (to some extent) and competing with each other (raising the bar), and partly because the future isn't the past. Tom. PS: I've seen eyeball tracker studies. They cost heaps, and pity the poor guy with wandering eyes.

I forgot about the wandering eyes.......

I think Clarke pulls out a good point. Any one with .5 of a brain can use the same statistics to point to differing conclusions - BUT bringing your own personal experience to the issue can be invaluable - gut feel, intuitive thinking,instinct, whatever you want to call it - we spend every second of our waking lives taking in information. We should make the most of what we've personally experienced. Sometimes it's better to take a step back and say "hey that just doesn't seem right based on my experience, I would expect...." But always keep those stats in the back pocket armoury.

Blink moments....http://www.gladwell.com/blink/