hmmm I suspect many people lie on their pillows at night, wondering if they would have survived a tussle with a one of lifes lightening bolts!!! ...I suspect in the morning they probably go to the internet and google people who actually played with the bolts. Does this choice make us more learned and considered, or just more cautious... how many "blink" moments have been put off by the a trip to Google to "look it up" paralysis by analysis ...or alternatively how many bolt grasps have been inspired by the same thing!

Its all about the Eureka moment -- when it all comes together -- intuition and insight trump all and Archemdies comes running down the street, dripping from his bath, towel in hand...

Risk analysis was devised to handle uncertain situations and especially limited information. This approach rolls up the idea of probability and utility (costs and benefits) of consequence, for all anticipated outcomes. The expected utility may come in a tree of sequences. Game theory looks similar. So far, so good, but two problems are: unanticipated outcomes, and in order to estimate probabilities you need more data than to estimate just a likely value. So "prudence" (conservative assumptions) are called usually made. Hedging (insurance against adversity) is another risk management tool. The US financial/debt markets probably weren't at school when these lessons were taught. Ultimately something adverse will come along. The Eureka moment for those would have been an anticipation that long lines of dominos do indeed fall, especially in earthquake zones. [However successful Gordon Gekko has been to date]. The best Eurekas involve discovery (often intuitively with validation) of a consistent law. The consistent law makes it easier and safer to come up with good probabilities of outcomes (and THEN act rationally). Intuition has a big role in situations where words like "would, should, could, might" are used. Not the only approach, but don't leave at home without it... Tom.

EUREKA!

Reminds me of what my father told me about how he was taught to swim. An old guy who did this kind of thing tied a rope around his waist and threw him in the river. Eureka! He learnt to swim. Dozens of other boys learnt the same way. Sometimes the realisation about what you have to do requires a bit of a push. Maybe not the approved method, but going into the deep end (with a life line) can clear the mind. Intuition's like that, when there's no recipes or water wings. The lifeline isn't a comfort device, but something the ensure you try again. But be careful what you inadvertently confess in front of clients! Tom.