Tuesday, February 19, 2008

The Future

DVD.  Beta. 8 Track.  Cassette tapes. LP’s. 45s. Phonograph Records.  Relics of time passed…

Stella’s. Papyrus rolls. Parchment scrolls. Illuminated manuscripts. Relics of an even more ancient time.

Books. Wait a minute…books?

Read this:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/109580

OK.  So maybe not tomorrow…But, consider the point…

It’s not books that are in danger – as in great (or not so great) written content.  In fact, nothing is really in danger.  All that is happening is a shift – evolutionary advance in how we enjoy and distribute that which we like, motivates us, excites us, causes us to laugh or cry or even get angry.  But the content? It won’t get better or worse through technology; it will just be more readily available.

Think back to the days of pre – Gutenberg printing press: little or no distribution of knowledge beyond a privileged few.  Sadly the powers in charge liked it that way.

Then all hell broke loose. Printed material became widely available. Ideas grew as they spread; peoples’ minds opened and closed (always a two edged sword that) and the world changed and continued to change as it continues to change till today.

Do we mourn the loss of reel-to-reel to recording tape? Do we lament the passing of the kinescope? Do we keen over the death of Edison’s wax cylinders?

Or, do we look back upon those adaptations of technology with awe and wonderment, amazed at “what those things could do” and happily play or watch their output on every device imaginable today with a sense of deep nostalgia but also respect and thanks for getting us to where we are today and for preserving the best of what was then.

It’s all about the content. Once the doors were opened and Pandora’s Box unleashed we instinctively knew that our means of communicating; of sharing would change and evolve. And, we also know that the driver would be content.

The human need to tell and share stories drives everything. We are a social people and since the first cave folk banded together and painted stones we have been looking for the next Facebook; video technology or reading device (after all that is what Gutenberg really invented…)

Think on this:  Beowulf, an epic poem passed on by word of mouth (think on that) for generations, written and illuminated by monks, printed on a press, made into a movie; downloaded by movielink, watched on an HP/Compaq nc6400 on an airplane, and written about on that same computer on MSFT Word and then sent by outlook to a huge audience… (guess where I am)…I’d say we just came full circle, no?

So here is my thought.  Why agonize over the device? Do I really care if it’s this or that? Or should I care more about understanding people, their needs, their actions, the experiences they like and love?

Because;

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
- Niels Bohr

Devices are for figuring out how to use. But content?  I don’t really have to predict content, do I?

What do you think?

Posted by David on 02/19 at 10:14 AM
(8) CommentsPermalink
  1. "Think back to the days of pre – Gutenberg printing press: little or no distribution of knowledge beyond a privileged few. Sadly the powers in charge liked it that way." That's not very fair. Before the printing press (and the important mechanisation of paper production that that came with it) producing any kind of document was an incredibly expensive and time consuming process that, beyond a few relatively mass produced texts like books of hours, only the very richest could feasibly afford. Indeed, had they wanted to, the authorities had the means to clamp down on the dissemination of printing just as the Chinese had done with the mechanical clock. In the event, however, they did not. Sorry, that deviates from the main theme somewhat doesn't it? oh well.

    Posted by Nick Greenfield  on  2008-02-19 16:33:49

  2. Brilliantly put David. The fact that content needs to be relevant and compelling is so paramount, especially now. The facility with which we communicate and dispatch messages demands it. It is the basis of a viral message. We mustn't ever lose sight of the fact that to be viral is not up to us or the advertisers. After all "viral" is just another word for "a good idea". Your ramble reminds me of the video I wrote for the Nortel pitch, so maybe I'm biased. cheers

    Posted by Matthew Gyulay  on  2008-02-19 17:19:11

  3. whoops -- I will keep politics out -- but a close reading of history before and after does suggest that keeping "books" out of the hands of the people is a tactic... as for Maththew -- I knew I got the idea somewhere....

    Posted by david sable  on  2008-02-19 18:08:44

  4. Where does interactive storytelling come in? MUDs, MUSHes, MMORPGs, Videogames… The whole storytelling paradigm has refined…but also shifted. There will, some day soon, be children who have never dealt with a fully passive medium like Radio or Television. I noticed the part you missed in your Beowulf parable: http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/15062/Beowulf-the-Game-Ray-Winstone-Behind-the-Scenes-Video/ It is distinctly possible that the only encounter a child/youth has with the epic tale of Beowulf is this videogame...not the story, or the language…but “physically” picking up a sword and descending into the depths of the Earth…. Neal Stephenson brings up an interesting paradigm in The Diamond Age. A bunch of “ractors” (Interactive actors) all meet up in a virtual setting and play their roles, bringing their own character and style to the “ractive.” Storytelling by participation. Ad Lib…live television…but anyone can participate. The seeds of this can be found in current MUSHes and MMORPGs…when it becomes fully immersive, will the story remain the same? Was Romeo and Juliet at the Globe the same as West Side Story on the screen? Will it be the same when you’re playing a Jet or a Shark…? The medium modifies the message. The message does not exist in a vacuum. Perhaps you don't need to "predict" the content...but you can safely assume that it won't be the same content tomorrow. You need to care about the device...because it affects your message and how you tell the story.

    Posted by Glenn White  on  2008-02-19 18:17:56

  5. There certainly are a lot more stories out there, via more delivery channels and often more slick. But not as much time to take them in. How to choose... Tom.

    Posted by Tom Osborn  on  2008-02-20 05:09:21

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